Theme 3: Understanding present changes and predicting the future

WP 3.1 Formulate glacier-atmosphere interactions in ESMs and validate with available data
Further develop a physically based model of the interface between glaciers and atmosphere (boundary layer). Acquire or produce dynamically downscaled climate runs (CMIP5) for each glacier region and provide for use within the centre. Analyse statistically downscaled ensembles of RCMs as inputs to glacier models. Analyse high resolution precipitation output and snow scheme in ESMs.
 

WP 3.2 Advance ESMs with new and improved physical processes
The results from Theme 2: glacial and subglacial hydrology, calving and surface processes will be implemented in the ESMs at FMI and DMI.
 

WP 3.3 Estimate future changes in terrestrial ice, including an analysis of uncertainties
Initialize and run coupled climate-ice sheet ESM models, with the new improvements, to estimate past variations and future changes in land ice volumes and the impact these may have on the earth system. 
Glacier simulations of past ice volume histories will be tested against available data about glacier extent to derive realistic spin-up states for simulations of future changes. Mass balance will both be calculated from downscaled climate reconstructions and from ESM control climate and climate change simulations. The obtained simulated and reconstructed crustal ice loading will be used to study glacier isostatic adjustments in WP1.1.
The role of higher order stresses on the response of glaciers to climate change will be explored as well as the natural and anthropogenically induced variability and stability of glaciers within the Earth system in the past and under different anthropogenic carbon emission scenarios. Crustal movements and past sea level rise rates will be used to constrain coupled earth system ice sheet models.

Theme leader: Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir, University of Iceland