WP 3.3: Estimate future changes in terrestrial ice, including an analysis of uncertainties

Workpackage leader: Heikki Järvinen, FMI

SVALI PhD students:

Objectives

• Apply ice-flow models coupled to surface-mass balance models to selected glaciers and estimate future changes.
  
• Apply coupled glacier-ESM models, with improvements developed in Theme 2 and implemented in WP3.2, to estimate future changes in terrestrial ice and the impact these
• Produce and provide downscaled future climate runs to other partners of the project.
  

Background

Models that have been used to project future changes in terrestial ice volumes have often not included dynamic glaciers and ice sheets and are therefore only able to provide rough estimates of possible future changes of the Cryosphere. The aim of the SVALI project is to improve the model description of a number of physical processes, implement these in new model versions, develop new model interfaces and then the final task is to run these models into the future. ThisWP focuses on applying the models, the improvements and the new couplings between the model components for scenarios of future climate, and produce improved predictions of ice volume changes.